Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...

Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...

The Federal Reserve System’s Reserve Banks across the country keep money moving securely, from electronic payroll deposits to instant payments to physical cash. In this critical role, Reserve Banks ...

To better understand the possible impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published the 2025 research brief “On-the-Job Exposure to AI Among ...

I develop a framework analyzing how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes monetary policy through three interrelated channels: cyclical transmission, structural transition, and financial stability. In ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...