Polymarket, an offshore betting platform, shows a 62% chance of a recession occurring in the U.S. this year, cooling down Monday afternoon after peaking at 66% on Sunday, when Goldman Sachs economists said they expect a recession to occur if the Trump administration goes through with its tariff rates.

Traders on Kalshi are placing a 61% probability on the US entering a recession in 2025, following Trump’s tariff order announced on April 2.

While some analysts don't expect the tariffs to last long, betting market speculators have dim outlooks.